Over the last few years, I have drifted away from Twitter and for the most part I think it has been the right decision. But I’ll drift back occasionally, and when I do it generally reminds me of why I left. However, there is a rare occasion when I will read a Tweet and it will spark an interesting thought experiment.
After the Ravens’ 17-10 loss to the Chiefs, I took to Twitter to find some consolation and maybe to hate scroll as a way of letting out some emotions. After a few minutes I came across a Tweet that said something to this effect:
Take comfort Raven’s fans, Peyton Manning didn’t win his first Super Bowl until his ninth season.
I even saw one of the ESPN talking heads make this same point a day or two later.
Now, while remembering Peyton Manning’s career arc didn’t give me much comfort after a rough loss, it did raise an interesting question: as fans of Lamar Jackson, is there really a reasonable comparison to be made between Peyton’s failings early in his career and Lamar’s? Peyton won two MVPs prior to winning the SB; Lamar now has two MVPs. They both had difficult playoff losses that threatened to define their careers. They both had plenty written and said about them asking, “can they win the big game?” Peyton, in his 9th season, finally answered that question. Will Lamar?
If there are similarities to their careers, are there decisions that the Colts made that the Ravens can similarly look to in order to get over the hump and win it all?
Let’s explore.
First off, let’s state the obvious, Peyton Manning and Lamar Jackson are very different players. Lamar is a dynamic athlete who puts pressure on defenses unlike anyone before him. He is a legitimate threat to run on any play and is becoming increasingly dangerous with his arm. Peyton, on the other hand, while he was a limited athlete at best, was a quarterback who had a good arm and a superior ability to study, read, and dissect defenses.
As individual players, there really is not much of a comparison. But I think upon closer examination there are aspects of their teams and the environments that they played in that can be deconstructed to help us better understand their paths to the big game.
In no particular order, let’s take a look at five different comparisons.
The Division was easier for Manning
We’ll start with a comparison that neither Lamar nor the Ravens have any control over, but is interesting, nonetheless. Now, early in his career, the title statement of this section was decidedly not the case. Older fans may remember that until 2002, the Colts were members of the AFC East which, from 1998 to 2002, was excellent. Over that 4-year period, the rest of the division other than the Colts had an average winning percentage of 57%. If you remove two outlier years from the Bills (3 wins in ’01) and Patriots (5 wins in ’00) that winning percentage jumps to 61%, which translates to a 10-win season for each team. Excellent by any measure.
In two of those five seasons Manning led the Colts to the playoffs. He finished 13-3 in 1999 and received the first-round bye, only to lose to the Titans 19-16. In 2000 the Colts were 10-6 and lost in the Wildcard round 23-17 to the Dolphins.
Things changed dramatically in 2002 when the Colts were moved to the newly formed AFC South, a division that, at its formation, contained two franchises that didn’t even exist 10 years earlier. Between 2002 and 2006, the other teams in the AFC South had a combined winning percentage of 43%, including the Texans who never won more than 7 games in any one of those seasons. The Colts, it should be noted, after going 10-6 in 2002, never lost more than 4 games in any one of those seasons.
Another point of interest: 2001, the Colts last in the AFC East, was also the season that a certain quarterback in New England made his first NFL start. But we’ll get to that in a bit.
So, it’s pretty clear that switching divisions gave Manning and the Colts at the very least an easier path to the playoffs every year than they had previously enjoyed in the AFC East. And if part of winning the Super Bowl is a numbers game, the more times you get to the playoffs, the better chance you have.
So how does that compare to Lamar Jackson and his path to the playoffs? Let’s just say that in most years the AFC North looks a lot more like the old AFC East. Since Jackson entered the league in 2018, the other teams in the AFC North have a combined winning percentage of 50%. But that includes two abysmal seasons in 2019 and 2020 by the Cincinnati Bengals before Joe Burrow became “Joe Burrow”. Take out those two seasons and what do you have? A 55% win percentage. It’s a division that rarely sees teams bottom out anymore. Even this past year, with the Browns and Bengals missing their franchise quarterbacks for most of the season, both teams were able to win 20 games between them, with the Browns even making the playoffs.
Obviously, the division that a team plays in is totally out of its control, but it still counts as a legitimate obstacle that needs to be overcome.
Manning Had Brady; Lamar has Mahomes
This one is not really about the stats but can speak to the mental toughness and focus of a star player. By all accounts in the 2023 season Lamar was more “focused” and “locked-in” than ever before. And it paid off in a big way in both the regular season and the postseason, the apex of which may have been a halftime speech during the Texans game that spurred his team to victory. So, what happened to that mental toughness the next week? Pat Mahomes, that’s what.
Looking back at the turn of the millennium, the clashes between Manning’s Colts and Brady’s Patriots were epic. Manning faced Brady 9 times between 2001 when Tom entered the league and 2006 when Manning won his first Super Bowl. Brady won the first 6 of those games, including his first ever start (44-13). One of those wins was in the 2003 AFC Championship Game and another was in the 2004 Divisional Round, both wins which led to Patriot Super Bowl victories. It wasn’t until 2005 in a regular season game in Foxboro that Manning finally broke through, winning 40-21 on MNF in Week 9. The following season, also in Week nine and also in Foxboro, Manning again beat Brady, this time on SNF. So it was that in their second head-to-head AFC Championship game Manning found himself, this time at home, down 21-6 at halftime. After that, Manning took over, engineering 4 touchdown drives in the second half, including the game-winning touchdown with a little over a minute on the clock, to win 38-34. They did it by staying committed to the run, playing with faster pace, and with big plays on offense. The Colts would go on to face an overmatched Bears team in the Super Bowl, but it could be argued that slaying the Brady demon was Manning’s greatest accomplishment that year.
For Lamar to win his first Super Bowl, he is likely going to have to do the same thing to Patrick Mahomes. All the talk about Mahomes being the next GOAT is clearly premature, but there is no doubt that in today’s NFL, Mahomes is the alpha. And in the 2024 AFC Champ game that fact was in full view. With very little running game, a less than stellar wide receiver corps, and an aging star tight end, Mahomes did just enough against the league’s best defense to win the game. Sadly, the same cannot be said about Lamar. They face each other in the regular season in 2024, a game that will certainly be on national TV. There is no doubt that a Manning-like 20 point regular season win would go a long way towards Lamar and the Ravens breaking through the Mahomes barrier. In all likelihood, to get to and win the Big Game, Lamar will need to be the guy that does what it takes to get his team past Mahomes’ Chiefs.
Lamar Needs to Stay Healthy
There is a famous quote by Tom Moore (who we’ll get to later) about Peyton Manning that sums things up pretty well. When asked why the backup quarterbacks don’t get more reps in practice, Moore responded, “If 18 goes down, we’re f**ked, and we don’t practice f**ked.” The Ravens, with their commitment to Lamar, have put themselves in the exact same position. As I wrote earlier, in some ways winning the Super Bowl, like any other endeavor, is a numbers game. The more times you get to play for the Championship, the better the chance of winning it. Peyton never missed a start in his NFL career leading up to his SB year. He played behind a solid offensive line, got rid of the ball quickly, and rarely took sacks.
Lamar, on the other hand, by the very nature of his play, has put himself in harm’s way much more frequently. The result of this has been 10 missed starts so far in his career. Now, to be fair, given the reckless abandon with which he sometimes plays, 10 missed starts in six seasons is not an exorbitant number. But the facts are clear; when Lamar plays, the Ravens win significantly more than when he doesn’t.
Not surprisingly, the Ravens have made the playoffs in every season that Lamar has finished, and even one that he didn’t finish, although in that one they lost in the Wild-Card Round. This past season they took what seems to be an invaluable step in the right direction, reducing Lamar’s designed runs and encouraging him to take less hits in order to help him stay healthy. And it worked; Jackson finished the season for the first time in three seasons and went to the AFCC in the process. To echo what many have said, more of his team’s offense revolves around Lamar than any other, so it goes without saying that the only way to get him a ring in the next three seasons is to do everything possible to keep him healthy.
It’s the System
Now we get a little more strategic. Lamar is playing under his third different offensive coordinator, and has won the MVP award under two different OCs. Those OCs, Greg Roman and Todd Monken, ran two systems that were also arguably very different. While both offenses were very much built around Lamar and his skill set, Monken’s offense was lighter personnel-side, spread out more, and consistently produced more explosive plays than Roman’s. It also gave Lamar more of an opportunity to make decisions at the line of scrimmage. Both offenses produced excellent offensive seasons: Roman in 2019 and Monken in 2023. Roman, however, was let go in large part because he couldn’t build on the 2019 season and create a more dynamic, balanced attack. Nor, it seemed, could he consistently draw out Lamar’s skills as a passer and a field general in the way that Monken seemed to in 2023. Can Monken build on the success of this past season? That remains to be seen, but the Ravens success will be largely determined by the teams’ ability to put the resources around him (and Lamar) to make it happen.
So Lamar has shown that he can run both the Roman and the Monken offenses to great heights. And I think it is safe to say that the answer to the failures in the playoffs is not a new system or a different offensive scheme, but instead is consistent growth and increased proficiency in the same offense.
Let’s look back at Manning. Many will remember the much talked about coaching change that brought in Tony Dungy and added a defensive mindset to an already potent offense. But what some might not remember is that Manning had the same offensive coordinator, Tom Moore, until Moore retired in 2009. That kind of consistency and being able to work to master the offensive scheme to fit Manning and the players around him undoubtedly made a difference in how the offense was able to improve. When Manning arrived in the NFL, the Colts were the 25th ranked offense by DVOA, improving to only 24th in Manning’s rookie year. Then things changed. Over the next eight seasons, they were in the top 10 five times, including three times in the top 5. Among many other factors, coaching consistency mattered to success. Being able to do the same with Lamar and Monken, evolving an offense that clearly already fits Lamar very well, and adapting it to the players around him will certainly be beneficial.
In a small sample size, it seems like the Monken offense is the one that can survive in the playoffs better. The front office has also shown that they can put weapons around Lamar, which is what a lot of people have been calling for over the last two years. And while on-field weapons are important, they are not enough. They need to get Lamar sideline weapons as well. As they have done on the defensive side to great success, the team needs to spend time and resources to bring in young offensive assistant coaches who have growth, or even head-coach potential.
In addition to the consistent presence of Moore as the OC, the Colts’ coaching staff was defined by the consistency and quality of its offensive staff, and included two future head coaches (Jim Caldwell and Bruce Arians) and multiple future OCs.
This will be a point of contention for many people, but I believe it is probably better for the Ravens’ future success that they lost Mike McDonald to the head coaching ranks and kept Todd Monken. The longer Lamar stays in a system that accentuates his talents, and he is allowed to develop within that system and have the system develop around him, the more likely the offense is to reach its full potential.
The Salary Cap
This might be the biggest threat to the Ravens potential Super Bowl than any other.
There is no doubt that quarterback contracts have gone wild over the last few years. Since Brett Favre became the NFL’s first $100MM player, it’s typical that every season a new player, usually a quarterback, pushes the average annual salary to new heights.
Before Lamar’s new contract, the Ravens went through this once before, with Joe Flacco the year after he took them to the Super Bowl. Thankfully, with a trip to the AFCC in his first year on his new deal, it looks like Lamar is on pace to deliver on his second contract unlike Flacco.
As these contracts have soared, and total salary cap increases have stagnated (especially since Covid), there has been a lot of talk about the fact that these quarterbacks are taking up too much of their teams’ salary cap space on an annual basis. Below are the 10 highest paid QBs in the NFL and the percentage of their teams’ caps in 2024 and 2025:
Joe Burrow 11.2%, 17.8%
Justin Herbert 7.4%, 14.4%
Lamar Jackson 12.6%, 16.8%
Jalen Hurts 5.3%, 8.4%
Russell Wilson 13.8%, 21.3%
Kyler Murray 19.4%, 17.5%
Deshaun Watson 22.3%, 24.6%
Patrick Mahomes 22.8%, 23.4%
Josh Allen 18.3%, 21.8%
Daniel Jones 18.3%, 16.0%
By comparison, in Peyton’s Super Bowl season, the breakdown of the top 10 highest paid quarterbacks was as follows:
Carson Palmer 13%
Peyton Manning 10%
Michael Vick 9%
Tom Brady 14%
Brett Favre 12%
Drew Brees 6%
Vince Young 7%
Alex Smith 7%
Matt Leinart 1%
Matt Hasselback 6%
Looking at just Peyton, in the four years leading up to and including his Super Bowl season, he took up 20.5%, 10.3%, 9.9%, and 10.4% of the cap. There is no doubt that Peyton’s Colts had a lot more salary cap flexibility that do Lamar’s Ravens.
Interestingly, in their 2006 season, the Colts also had Marvin Harrison on a deal that paid him one of the top-10 salaries in the league. Today, only the Rams have two players even in the top 20 (Stafford, Donald). When you expand that to look at the top 30 players, the list includes the Rams (Kupp), Eagles (Hurts, Brown), Chargers (Herbert, Bosa), Browns (Watson, Garrett), Jets (Rodgers, Williams), Bills (Allen, Diggs), Seahawks (Smith, Metcalf), and Raiders (Garoppolo, Adams). That is well less than half the league, and the only one of those teams that has a Super Bowl ring with those players is the Rams. The Ravens’ strategy of spreading the cap dollars around to multiple players at various positions seems to be the right way to go, but time will tell.
Because of the enormous inflation in quarterback salaries on their second deal, the importance of winning on a quarterback’s rookie deal has increased dramatically. This is working against Lamar and the Ravens. Although Pat Mahomes showed this year that a player on a large second deal can win the whole thing, it remains to be seen whether any other QB can pull off the feat. Other than Mahomes, the player with the highest salary cap percentage to win the SB was at 12.2%, and that was Tom Brady. Making matters worse, in the last 6 SB’s there has been at least one quarterback on their rookie deal, meaning that one of the two most coveted spots in an NFL season was taken up by a QB with a designation that Lamar no longer qualifies for.
There is some good news, however. First, it is a problem that any team with a Super Bowl caliber quarterback is already facing or will certainly face, so the Ravens aren’t alone. Second, the Ravens have one of the best front offices in the league at managing the cap, so building around their star quarterback with high-value talent and being ultra-targeted about where cap money is spent is already something they are good at. Continuing that will be of the utmost importance.
The biggest lurking threats to Lamar and his ring right now? Probably CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, both of whom are still on their rookie deals and have shown they can win games. Lamar needs to focus on being the best of the quarterbacks on their second+ contracts, and hope that the next crop of rookie-contract QBs land in the NFC.
In Conclusion
Obviously, there are things about the above analysis that the Ravens can do nothing about. Since Manning retired, an extra game has been added to the schedule, which is just one more chance for injuries to occur. The division that they are in is out of their control as well. And of course, there is also only one bye in the playoffs now, which takes away the opportunity for the second-place team to rest their players at the beginning of the playoffs.
The good news is that the Ravens have already taken a number of steps in the right direction, so they have a strong foundation to build on. Positive step #1: they signed Lamar. Locking up the best quarterback in franchise history wasn’t always a sure thing, but that it got done is a huge win for the franchise. Second was bringing in an offensive coordinator who seems able to get the most out of the full Lamar package, including both his dynamic running abilities and ever improving passing and field general abilities. Keeping him in that system and building not just the player talent but the coaching talent around him will be key.
The offense made a concerted effort to run LJ more selectively on designed runs, instead encouraging him to take checkdowns, throw rather than run when he left the pocket, and avoid taking big hits. Coaches should continue this trend to try to limit wear and tear. Keeping Lamar healthy may be the make-or-break accomplishment over the next 4 seasons.
Finally, while Zay Flowers and Tyler Linderbaum were excellent additions, continuing to put “high-end” talent around Lamar will remain important. Just as important, though, will be the organization’s ability to put “high-end” coaching talent around Lamar, thereby improving the offensive production without adding dollars to the cap. They have done this on the defensive side for years, losing good coaching talent on almost an annual basis, but restocking it and generally keeping the quality of the defense towards the top end of the NFL on a regular basis. Bringing that kind of success to the offensive side of the ball starts with keeping Monken and making it a top priority to build around him.
Can the Ravens restructure Lamar’s contract down the road to help allay some cap issues? Can they restructure other contracts? Maneuvering within the cap will be even more imperative to success when you have one contract taking up so much room.
Will it happen eventually? Will Lamar get his ring? I think so, and hopefully before 2026 when he enters his ninth NFL season.
What Lies Before 